In 2009, as I’ve mentioned before, only one poll got the race right. In their final pre-election poll, Public Policy Polling had the pro-freedom to marry No on 1 campaign losing with 47% of the vote. On Election Day, the No side lost with 47% of the vote.
Last night, PPP released their final poll of the 2012 election in Maine. They have the Yes on 1 (now the pro-freedom to marry) side winning with 52% of the vote. The poll had a very large sample (1,633) and was conducted during the previous two days.
PPP and other pollsters have recommended that when looking at a poll on marriage, one should assume most of the undecided vote will go against same-sex marriage.
This result is a very good sign for passage of the referendum in and of itself, but it’s even more promising when compared to PPP’s last result in September, which had a margin that was statistically the same. This means either that the barrage of false and misleading anti-marriage advertising hasn’t had much of an effect on the electorate or that the Yes on 1 campaign’s own advertising has fought things to a draw.
In 2009, in contrast, the margin in favor of marriage rights dropped 4 points between PPP’s second-to-last poll in October and their final poll right before the election, likely due to the TV ad blitz from the anti-same-sex marriage campaign.
Supporters of marriage rights have some real cause for optimism in these numbers, but should be aware that this could still be a close election.