Maine 2016 election prediction results

Here’s how 60 self-selected participants think Maine’s elections go today.

This is a completely unscientific measure, but the pool doesn’t have the worst track record of predicting results in recent cycles, in fact it has sometime been more accurate than the public polling.

Here are the average results from what this group of politically-interested individuals think will happen tonight (mean results were similar to median results, indicating a lack of influential outliers):

Presidential statewide:
Clinton: 50%
Trump: 43%
Johnson: 5%
Stein: 2%

Presidential CD2:
Clinton: 45%
Trump: 48%
Johnson: 6%
Stein: 2%

First Congressional District:
Holbrook: 37%
Pingree: 63%

Second Congressional District:
Cain: 49%
Poliquin 51%

Question 1 (marijuana):
Yes: 52%
No: 48%

Question 2 (taxes and education funding):
Yes: 53%
No: 47%

Question 3 (background checks):
Yes: 50%
No: 50%

Question 4 (minimum wage):
Yes: 55%
No: 45%

Question 5 (ranked choice voting):
Yes: 52%
No: 48%

Question 6 (bonds):
Yes: 62%
No: 38%

State House:
Democratic: 80
Republican: 67
Unenrolled: 3

State Senate:
Democratic: 18
Republican: 17

Mike Tipping

About Mike Tipping

Mike is Maine's longest-writing political blogger and explores state politics and policy with a focus on analysis and explanation. He works at the Maine People's Alliance and Maine People's Resource Center.